2024 Mock Draft 4.0: Stocking up on arms – Farm to Fountains

Let me preface this mock draft by saying I don’t think this would be the best strategy for the Royals to employ in this year’s Amateur Draft. Back in 2018, the front office took a pitcher with each of their first five picks. It was a highly touted crop of prospects that fell flat in the end, outside of Brady Singer and potentially Kris Bubic. In 2021, the Los Angeles Angels took a pitcher with all 20 of their selections. Only two of those have even reached the major leagues to this point.

Although I don’t think selecting all pitchers is any sort of effective strategy, I’m also not of the mindset that the Royals should never select a pitcher early in the draft. You’ll always be haunted by the ghosts of Kyle Zimmer and Asa Lacy no matter who you take. Kansas City can’t change the past, but they can apply more modern approaches to scouting and pitching development to do better. The pitching development has taken a step forward in the last two seasons. For that reason, I think the team should definitely continue to entertain arms early in the draft — such as Blake Wolters last summer.

Here’s my fourth mock draft. This time, I purposely selected only pitchers so that I could highlight some arms that I like early on in this year’s crop of talent.

A lot of the hype this college season has gone to Chase Burns, and rightfully so. However, I’ve got Hagen Smith ahead of Burns just marginally. Smith went 9-2 this season, pitching for Arkansas in the SEC. Over 84.0 IP, he struck out 161 batters and walked 34. That’s an absolutely asinine 17.3 strikeouts per nine innings (just edging out Burns who finished at 17.2). His ERA finished up at 2.04 in what was absolutely his best college season to date. Smith may end up in a big league bullpen, but he has all the makings of a frontline starter if he’s able to continue his development and succeed in the pros.

As for pitch mix, Smith sits in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball. He also throws a slider, changeup, sinker, splitter, and a curveball. The splitter is the best offering and one of the best pitches in the entire country this season. If there’s any knock on Smith, it’s his overall lack of spin with some of his pitches and the potential health risk. The health risk is going to be there for any pitcher touching triple-digits, but he did undergo UCL surgery in high school. If the Royals take any arm at six, I’d be thrilled with Smith.

I’ve already had Oakie on a mock draft before, but he’s this year’s version of Thomas White for me. I think White was a better prospect at the time and of course pitches from the left side. With that side, Oakie is still a solid prospect in his own right. He’s got a “lanky” delivery of sorts that I really love. The fastball is already in the mid-90s and could certainly find its way up to the upper 90s with another year or two of development. It’s more of a two-pitch mix currently, between the heater and a slider with outstanding spin rates. Oakie does throw a changeup, but it’s not used nearly as much as the other two offerings. Adding a splitter eventually would really round out the profile and give Oakie front-end rotation upside.

Tolle has a whippy arm action from the left side. He releases from a low three-quarter arm slot which adds a wrinkle for hitters and makes Tolle especially difficult for left-handed hitters. He’s been anywhere from 90-96 with the heater, but it has outstanding shape and projects as at least 55-grade long-term with plenty of potential for more. His slider plays very well off of the fastball, thanks in part to his low and lengthy release point. It makes it difficult for hitters to identify the pitch out of his hand. Tolle has been a two-way player throughout college but will be solely a pitcher as a pro. Over 81.1 IP in 2024, Tolle pitched to a 3.21 ERA with 125 strikeouts and 37 walks.

Aidan May is another return name to this mock draft. He’s an electric arm out of the West Coast, touching the upper-90s with his fastball. He has the makings of a starter, but with injury bugs in his past, he could be a fast-tracking late-inning reliever in the pro ranks. May compiled 71.0 innings in 2024, pitching to a 3.04 ERA with 84 strikeouts and 23 walks. Behind the electric fastball, May mixes in a slider and a changeup. As a SIRP at the next level, the fastball and slider would be a strong enough two-pitch mix to carry him.

Cole Gibler reminds me a tad of current Royals prospect, Ben Kudrna. It could just be the local prep pitcher thing, or the mid-90s heater and gyro-slider combination. Some that I’ve talked to think he’s more advanced at this stage than Kudrna before him. Kudrna had better upside with the fastball at this point, though. It’s somewhat of a short-arm action, and Gibler tends to throw across his body. The result has been inconsistent command. At times, he can leave pitches in the heart of the zone where they can be squared up and will certainly be punished in the pro ranks. Beyond the talent, Gibler has a Brady Singer-esque tenacity on the mound that you want to see from a young starter.

Major may be gone well before the fifth round, but he wasn’t this time using the Prospects Live mock draft simulator, so I took him. What stands out most is his lightning-fast arm speed and fantastic pitch traits. He spins the ball exceptionally well, giving his mid-90s fastball extreme arm-side life. He pairs the fastball with a slider and changeup. The pitch mix may very well eventually feature three above-average or even plus offerings with more refinement. So what’s the catch? Major is 5-11 and it’s hard to believe there’s much more to uncover from the righty. He’s just about tapped out already to this point. If he’s available this late, it’ll be for that very reason. He profiles as a reliever but could be a very good one at that.

Review previous Mock Drafts below:

Mock Draft 1.0

Mock Draft 2.0

Mock Draft 3.0

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