Could Nick Pratto Bump Nelson Velazquez From the Opening Day Roster?

We are still 22 days away from Opening Day. Thus, the roster is far from a “sure deal” in Spring Training.

Nonetheless, that has not stopped Royals fans from predicting who will be on the active roster on March 28th against the Twins. Those thoughts are mainly fueled by which players have been performing this spring in Cactus League play.

One position player who has been making a name for himself in Arizona in Spring Training is Nick Pratto, the Royals’ 2017 1st-round pick.

In 6 games and 17 plate appearances, Pratto slashes .353/.389/.529 with a .918 OPS. That also includes five RBI and a home run, as seen in this clip from his February 26th game against the Chicago Cubs.

Even though Pratto is turning some heads this spring, he has had an underwhelming first two seasons in the Majors.

In 144 career games and 527 plate appearances, Pratto has only posted a .290 wOBA, an 80 wRC+, and accumulated an fWAR of -0.9. That is underwhelming and not precisely promising, especially for a Royals baseball club looking for more pop and production in the lineup (they ranked 25th in OPS and 26th in home runs last year, according to Fangraphs).

As a result, it’s hard to see Pratto’s future in Kansas City, especially in 2024. Not only does he not offer a great outlook at the plate based on the past two seasons, but he also seems considerably behind Vinnie Pasquantino, who seems to be the Royals’ likely regular first baseman for the upcoming season.

It’s unlikely that a lousy spring will mean that Pasqauntino will lose playing time to Pratto once the 2024 regular season starts, even with Pratto sporting a productive bat to begin the Cactus League campaign.

On the other hand, is there another Royals player who is in danger of perhaps losing their Opening Day roster spot to Pratto?

Nelson Velazquez could be a candidate. This is not just due to his slow start in Arizona in Cactus League play but also based on how his hitting profile from a season ago compares to Pratto’s.

While Pratto has gotten off to a great start in Arizona, it’s been a bit of the inverse for Velazquez, who was acquired by the Royals from the Cubs in the Jose Cuas trade last summer.

Velazquez is tied for the team lead this spring in at-bats (18). However, he is slashing .111/.158/.111 with an OPS of .269. He has also failed to acquire an extra-base hit in Cactus League play and has only one walk to four strikeouts.

That is a far cry from the slugger mashing balls immediately after coming to Kansas City from the North Side of Chicago last August.

While the Hunter Renfroe signing put a little more pressure on Velazquez this spring to “earn” his spot on the Royals’ Opening Day roster and lineup, it seemed likely that Velazquez would be a “shoe-in” to make the roster this spring.

Velazquez posted a 132 wRC+ and .369 wOBA with 17 home runs in 53 games and 179 plate appearances between the Cubs and Royals a season ago. Those were impressive power numbers, and his xwOBA (.378) hinted that he could’ve had an even bigger season with more plate appearances.

Nelson Velazquez was 2nd in all of MLB for Barrels/PA% (min 100 BBE)- Don’t be surprised if he puts up big boy numbers this year pic.twitter.com/MACHjzITwb

— Aidan Smith (@Apaintedcorner) March 1, 2024

That said, strikeouts and the inability to make consistent contact were big “red flags” last season.

In 2023, Velazquez posted a 0.27 BB/K ratio, highlighted by a K% of 28.5%. In addition, he sported a contact rate of only 67.9% last season, and his contact ability PLV rolling chart also showed him to be a hitter who hovered near the bottom 10th percentile based on contact skills.

With four strikeouts and only one walk this spring, Velazquez’s BB/K ratio is 0.25. That is less than what he produced in that category a year ago. Furthermore, all the power Velazquez showed with the Cubs and Royals has been absent in the hitter-friendly conditions of the Cactus League, as evidenced by his only two hits this spring being singles.

That is a concerning sign for a hitter whose power PLV rolling chart was consistently above the 90th percentile in 2023 (and considerably above that mark, as seen below).

Does the lack of power and ability to make consistent contact this spring mean that Velazquez’s 2023 was simply a fluke?

Not at all. However, it may mean that he might need some time in Omaha to tweak or figure things out mechanically at the plate before making his MLB debut in 2024…

Especially if he cannot turn it around in Arizona in the next two weeks.

Regarding solely defensive positions, Pratto and Velazquez seem like a weird competition.

After all, Pratto has mostly been a first baseman in the Majors and Minor Leagues (he won a Minor League Gold Glove award in 2021). Velazquez, on the other hand, has mostly been reserved for the corner infield spots, with right field being his primary position in Kansas City in 2023.

On the other hand, a couple of factors could result in Pratto impacting Velazquez this spring and perhaps early in 2024.

First off, Pratto has more upside with the glove at first base than Pasquantino. That isn’t to say Pasquantino will lose any playing time or plate appearances in the lineup. After all, Pasquantino has a career 121 wRC+, .347 wOBA, and 0.92 BB/K ratio in 558 plate appearances over the past two seasons. That kind of profile is not just sorely needed in the Royals lineup in 2024 but beyond as well.

However, Pasquantino doesn’t offer much at first base defensively, especially compared to Pratto.

According to Savant, the former Old Dominion product produced a -3 OAA at first base last season, which included a success rate difference of -4%.

Pratto, on the other hand, posted an OAA of -4 at first base. However, his success rate difference was only -2%. Thus, if Pasquantino had the same number of innings at first base last year as Pratto (364 to Pratto’s 566), it is possible that Pasquantino would have produced a much worse OAA mark by the end of the 2023 season.

Pratto’s OAA box plots via Savant also show him sporting some “red” boxes on his chart last year, which means that Pratto demonstrated a propensity to make positive plays in certain areas of the field. Unfortunately, the same wasn’t true in Pasquantino’s box plot.

Thus, taking Pasquantino out of the field in exchange for Pratto at first base makes sense. Most of Pasquantino’s value comes from the bat, and his profile fits at DH. If Pratto can transition to what he’s doing offensively this spring and in flashes a season ago (Pratto had a .768 OPS in April and .840 OPS in May), it could make sense for Pratto to be the Royals’ regular first baseman against right-handed starting pitchers.

As a result, though, someone has to lose out on the Royals’ 40-man roster.

Velazquez will make the most sense if Pratto continues to rake this spring, especially if his hitting struggles continue. Renfroe and Velazquez are similar players defensively, with Renfroe holding a slight edge in arm strength. Furthermore, while Renfroe is coming off a down year offensively with the Angels and Reds last year, he has more of a proven track record than Velazquez, who has only played in 130 career games.

After all, Renfroe isn’t far removed from a stellar 2022 campaign in Milwaukee. That season, he produced a 124 wRC+, 29 home runs, and sported a hitter performance rolling chart as impressive as the one below.

With a Minor League option remaining and only 25 years old, it would make sense for the Royals to demote Velazquez to Omaha to get everyday at-bats to begin the season if his struggles persist in Arizona.

Pratto has performed much better this spring than Velazquez, which may give Pratto a slight edge for one of those remaining Opening Day roster spots.

On the other hand, Royals fans know that Spring Training can be an unreliable indicator of success. After all, the Royals were one of the best teams in the Cactus League in 2023 and ended up finishing 56-106 in the regular season, tied for the worst record in franchise history.

Thus, if Pratto finishes the spring ahead of Velazquez, does that mean Pratto will be a better overall option in 2024? Or would Velazquez have more upside, especially if he can clean things up in Omaha for a month or two?

That situation is harder because it depends on what category one looks at.

Regarding plate discipline, Pratto offers a more patient approach and slightly better contact potential (higher Z-Contact% and lower O-Swiing% and SwStr% than Velazquez), as shown in the table below via Fangraphs.

On the other hand, Pratto’s “too patient” approach backfired on him at times in 2023, especially down the stretch.

That was especially evident in their swing-take profile comparison. According to Savant, Pratto produced a run value of -12 on a swing-take basis last year. Conversely, Velazquez produced a +10 run value in the swing-take category, nearly a 22-point difference from Pratto.

A big difference was that Velazquez, unlike Pratto, was able to take advantage of pitches in the heat and shadow zones a season ago.

Also, Velazquez fared much better in his power and batted-ball skills, especially in Statcast categories. A season ago, Velazquez outproduced Pratto in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, and it wasn’t even close.

Velazquez may be a bit more free-swinging than Pratto at the plate, which is a concern for his strikeout rate in the long run. On the other hand, Pratto’s power profile and ability to barrel balls significantly lag behind Velazquez. It’s hard to see that gap shrink between the two in 2024 unless something dramatic happens to Velazquez injury-wise.

As a result, the Royals would be better off putting more investment in Velazquez in 2024 than Pratto, even if Pratto outperforms Velazquez by the conclusion of Cactus League play.

The Royals have a long-term power bat in Velazquez, who could be another Jorge Soler but with fewer injury issues and more long-term control. That shouldn’t be taken lightly by a Royals organization looking to build around superstar Bobby Witt, Jr., not just in 2024 but beyond.

Royals fans should still root for Pratto to show positive growth in 2024. If he can turn it around this season, he could be a nice piece to flip at some point this year, or he could be a nice contingency plan if injuries continue to plague Pasquantino.

He shouldn’t affect Velazquez’s long-term playing time in 2024, at least not for more than a few weeks.

Let’s hope GM JJ Picollo is a bit wiser than former GM Dayton Moore and doesn’t let a few weeks of Cactus League play dictate a few months of at-bats in the regular season.

Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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