Royals Roster Projection 3.0: Playing with Options – Farm to Fountains

We’re 18 games deep into the Kansas City Royals’ spring schedule. That’s more than half of the 32 contests between the start of the Cactus League and Opening Day. By now, there’s a solid amount of sample to make decisions from, even if it’s still certainly a small sample by baseball standards. The front office has started to make some cuts, sending minor leaguers like Noah Cameron, Luinder Avila, Steven Zobac, and Tyler Gentry to minor league camp. One name still in camp that comes as a slight surprise is first baseman Jac Caglianone. The shine has started to fade for some early standouts, such as Cavan Biggio. Biggio is now 1-for-11 in his last six appearances after starting the spring hitting .600.

With more time under our belt, it’s time to take a third look at the Royals’ roster and how it projects out for Opening Day.

Salvador Perez, Freddy Fermin

Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey, Vinnie Pasquantino

MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Hunter Renfroe

Joey Wiemer, Nick Loftin, Cavan Biggio

The lineup looks more or less set as we enter the second half of the spring. Where there’s still some fluctuation possible is in the team’s depth. The bench spots remain fluid, with Biggio and Loftin leading the group as utility options. Loftin has had a stellar spring, slashing .444/.545/.611. He’s been perhaps the hottest hitter for the Royals in Arizona. With a long investment in their 2020 32nd overall selection, it makes sense for the Royals to reward Loftin with a roster spot following a strong showing in Cactus League Play.

Biggio stood out early. Even if he’s slumped of late, the Royals reportedly held interest in Biggio dating back to last off-season. With such a long-held interest, it would be surprising, although not completely out of the question, to see Biggio optioned to Omaha to start the year. It would require a 40-man roster move to get Biggio on the Opening Day roster, but that can easily be accomplished after moving James McArthur to the 60-day IL. Wiemer remains more on the bubble than either of the other two options, but his ability to play center field is huge.

Nick Pratto is hitting .150 this spring with a .670 OPS. He’s had plenty of opportunities to make it work since his bounce-back 2021 season but has yet to find enough consistency to factor in. He’s out of options, meaning he’d hit waivers before heading to Omaha. Another organization with room on the 40-man roster might be willing to take a shot on Pratto, and if so, the Royals should just accept that possibility.

Other names, including Dairon Blanco, Nelson Velázquez, and Drew Waters factor in slightly but don’t figure to make the roster. Blanco’s Achilles injury has sidelined him for much of the spring so far. His roster spot was already in jeopardy with so many corner outfield options in the mix even before the injury. Velázquez has played sparingly in Arizona and not well when given the chance. He’s out of options like Pratto, making for a difficult decision, but one that probably needs to be made. Finally, there’s Drew Waters. Waters has one option remaining and hasn’t stood out in spring any more than his other corner outfield counterparts. He *could* play center, in theory, which gives him some additional consideration over the other two. However, the one option he has remaining makes him a pretty safe bet to start the year once again in Omaha.

Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, Kris Bubic

Lucas Erceg, Carlos Estévez, Hunter Harvey, John Schreiber, Angel Zerpa, Sam Long, Carlos Hernández, Alec Marsh

The pitching depth is even harder to decipher than the hitting depth. That’s mostly because it’s a more talented group. Sending Nick Pratto to waivers or Drew Waters to Omaha is a bit easier to stomach than sending Daniel Lynch IV to Omaha or Sam Long to waivers. No matter how the bullpen shakes out, there are games to be played with balancing options and rotation depth. The starting rotation is set. The competition is nonexistent at this point. The fifth spot is Bubic’s, and Lorenzen was signed to be the fourth starter.

The back four of the pen — Erceg, Estévez, Harvey, and Schreiber — are set as well. That leaves four open spots and many more than that to sift through. Although he stood out in spring thus far, Jonathan Bowlan has an option remaining and far less big league time to lean on than the names he’s competing against. That sends him to Omaha in this prediction. Other names with options remaining include Daniel Lynch IV, Alec Marsh, or James McArthur. McArthur is a pretty safe bet to land on the 60-day injured list, making for one less name on the bubble.

Carlos Hernández and Sam Long are both bubble names without options. Chris Stratton is another bubble name that can’t be optioned due to service time. He’s also owed the most of the group at $4 million. The team’s four high-octane relievers are all right-handed arms, meaning there’s a place for leverage lefties like Zerpa and Long to return. As such, both are included here, taking two of the four open spots. The final two spots boil down to a mixture of the option game above and the upside to uncover. Someone has to throw the low-leverage, mop-up innings to save better arms for better situations.

Between Stratton and Hernández, we’re keeping the younger arm that touches the mid-90s. Perhaps Hernández can find more success in lower-stress outings. If he can’t, a name like Bowlan can always replace him later in the season. There’s no reason to part ways with more arms than necessary before Opening Day. The eighth and final spot in the bullpen needs to offer some length. Marsh and Lynch could both fit the bill there, covering should one of the team’s five starters need to leave a start early at some point. The Royals’ schedule is a bit heavier than years past out of the gate, meaning they’ll need all five starters fairly early in 2025 — all the more reason to have length available in the pen if necessary.

With four lefties already on the pitching staff, Marsh gains an edge. With better overall stuff, Marsh also gains an edge. As such, we’re keeping Marsh as our “sixth starter” type on the big league roster and sending Lynch to Omaha to act as emergency depth. Even though he found success in a relief role last season, Lynch can fill out the Omaha rotation alongside Luinder Avila, Chandler Champlain, Noah Cameron, and eventually the rehabbing Kyle Wright.

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