I like to think that expectations are a matter of seeing (or believing in) probability. We set goals and expectations based on what we think is most likely to happen. I try to consider as many angles and possibilities and outcomes that may exist, no matter how extreme or unlikely. This involves confronting some dark, sinister thoughts: What if everything goes completely wrong? What if the 2025 Royals aren’t just disappointing, but terrible? Like, really, really bad? What would have to happen for that to occur?
This is a list of ingredients to make a terrifying entity known as the Nightmare Royals. It’s the worst possible outcome that can be reasonably foreseen with the 2025 Royals. That sounds more opinionated than it really is; none of these things are things I think will happen, but any of them could. To get the worst possible outcome, all of these things happen. The coin flips the wrong way every time it’s flipped. The Nightmare Royals aren’t just a disappointment, they’re threatening to be one of the worst teams in baseball.
As a ground rule, I’m not considering injuries. Injuries can’t be predicted with any reliability, and it would be way too easy to use them as an element. Obviously, the Royals would be in a lot of trouble if Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Seth Lugo were all somehow out for the season, but that wouldn’t make for an interesting read. Let’s assume everyone is completely healthy because a scenario where the team is bad in everything but health might be even scarier.
It’s funny to think of a “nightmare scenario” where Bobby is “only” a 5 WAR player, but the year-to-year difference and its ripple effect on the team would be notable. If the Royals were “barely” a playoff team with Bobby putting up 9-10 WAR, then what would the team be like if he’s only half as good? That all depends on the team around him, of course, which is why I emphasized that *every* condition I’m listing must be met to achieve this “nightmare scenario.” Any player putting up 5 WAR is good, but if he’s the only player even getting close to this mark…that might be an easy sign the team isn’t very good.
In 2024, Vinnie was more of an opportunistic hitter than an outright great one. The 97 runs he batted in accounted for the 20th most in baseball, but the only hitter with 90+ RBIs that had a lower wRC+ was Spencer Steer of the Reds. Vinnie’s 108 wRC+ and 111 OPS+ suggest that he’s a pretty good hitter, but not quite the offensive force he’s been expected to be. In our worst nightmares, Vinnie is no better. I’m not saying he’ll necessarily be worse, but if Bobby gets on base far less often than before, Vinnie’s run-scoring potential drops off as well.
It wouldn’t be fun to keep saying, “X player doesn’t hit well,” so what about adapting to new positions? Massey and India are safe bets to put up league-average production, but it remains to be seen how they’ll adapt to playing the outfield. It goes horribly for the Nightmare Royals. Neither of them can read the ball well and they both get easily lost in Kauffman’s spacious outfield. This leaves Quatraro stuck with a routine headache as he needs both bats in the lineup but can’t use either of them in a DH spot more than once or twice a week, meaning he must use one of them in left field more often than he wants to. Both players put up