What's the Best Case Scenario For The 2024 Royals? – Farm to Fountains

In what’s been a busy offseason, many have started to think about the Kansas City Royals competing in the division. The team lost 106 games last season but somehow can already sniff the playoffs? It might be more possible than you think. The Royals have a still young and inexperienced core of offensive talent. That talent has now been surrounded by veteran leadership in the starting rotation and major league bullpen. The chances of making the playoffs are still probably less likely than plausible, but how could it all go right? Here’s a look at what could be the best-case scenario for the 2024 Royals.

By now, everyone projected to be in the Royals’ Opening Day lineup in 2024 has at least a season’s worth of playing time in the big leagues. In this “all goes well” scenario, the youth on the Kansas City roster start to play confidently. They’re no longer a group of guys still getting their feet wet and it comes through in their on-field performance. Bobby Witt Jr. turns his strong 2023 finish into some MVP votes. Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino have near All-Star-worthy seasons. Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, and Nelson Velázquez all harness their flashes of production and turn them into season-long success. It all culminates in the young bats for Kansas City leading a top-15 offense in 2024.

Salvador Perez and Hunter Renfroe are veterans tasked with trying to keep up with the young group. What those two bring — that a majority of the young guys lack — is some power in their bats. Perez has hit 20 or more home runs in his last seven seasons (not including the Covid-shortened 2020 season). Renfroe has done it in his last six seasons (again, not including the 2020 season). Their batting average usually leaves a bit to be desired, especially from a middle-of-the-lineup bat. However, if the rest of the lineup improves, it is easier to swallow what they bring to the power department. If they each have 25 homers, it will be a good year for the Royals offense.

The Royals starting pitching was arguably the main reason why the team lost 106 games last season. Aside from a late Cole Ragans spark, the Royals were consistently put in bad spots early in games. Kansas City finished 26th in innings per game from their starters. They received less than five innings per average start. They were also tied for dead last in quality starts, getting a measly 32.

Across the three pitchers that started more than 12 games in 2023 (yes, there were only three), the best ERA was 5.06 from Zack Greinke. The other two, Jordan Lyles and Brady Singer, amassed 6.28 and 5.52 ERAs, respectively. If you include pitchers who started more than five games (excluding Ragans), the best ERA was still just 4.24. Needless to say, the Royals struggled mightily to find consistent starting pitching. Insert Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo.

Wacha has had a couple of down years, but he has been a steady option more often than not. Over the past two seasons, he had a 3.27 ERA across 47 starts. His WHIP in that span was just 1.14. Lugo, on the other hand, has kept his ERA under 3.61 in each of the past three seasons and has done so in all but two of his eight years in the majors. He also sports a pretty solid WHIP, hovering around 1.19 over the past two seasons. 2023 was his first season as a full-time starter, and aside from a slight drop in SO/9, he was essentially the same pitcher in terms of effectiveness.

Are those two aces? No. Are they the team’s top starters? Probably not. Are they going to significantly improve the Royals’ rotation and raise the floor of the team as a whole? Absolutely. They aren’t flashy, but they’re effective. Those two plus Ragans (assuming he stays at the same level as his 2023) are a solid trio and a substantial upgrade over last year.

Beyond those three, after an impressive showing in 2022 (3.23 ERA across 24 starts), Brady Singer was expected to be the team’s ace in 2023. He allowed just a single run over five innings in his first start, but things went south quickly after that. He gave up five or more runs in six of his next nine starts. Overall, he gave up four or more runs in over half of his starts. I like to look at splits to see if a player was better or worse during a certain stretch, and that wasn’t the case for Singer in 2023. He had a couple of better months (sub-4.00 ERA in June and August), but he bookended his season with an ERA over 8.00 in both March and September.

Jordan Lyles followed nearly the same trajectory as Singer in 2023. He allowed just one earned run in his first start, followed by a season-long struggle. He allowed four or more runs in 21 of 31 starts and had an ERA over five in all but one month of the season. Granted, he has never had a sub-4.00 ERA in his 13-year career, but he has had four sub-5.00 ERA seasons. The Royals were hoping for some stability from the veteran and they were disappointed in just about the worst way possible.

Expecting an ERA below 4.00 is probably asking too much of Lyles, but even getting below 5.00 would be a big improvement compared to his 2023 showing. For Singer, I think asking for a season somewhere between his 2021 (4.91 ERA) and his 2022 (3.23 ERA) is fair and very attainable. If both have bounce-back seasons, the starting rotation has a chance to be much closer to the league average in 2024.

If the starting pitching wasn’t the biggest issue for the Royals in 2023, the bullpen certainly was. The team had the second-highest bullpen ERA in the entire league, along with the least amount of saves, the third-most earned runs allowed, the fourth-highest WHIP, the third-most home runs, and the fourth-most walks from their relievers. No matter how you look at it, the pitching was bad. However, there are a couple of reasons for optimism in 2024.

The first big addition to the bullpen was Nick Anderson, who was acquired from the Braves for cash. Anderson has had a solid start to his career, with an ERA of 3.33 or lower in three of his first four big league seasons. Last season, he tallied a 3.06 ERA across 35.1 innings. In the shortened 2020 season, he had an incredible 0.55 ERA across 16.1 innings. He has been a historically high strikeout pitcher (career 12.7 SO/9), even though last year that number sat at just 9.2.

The next substantial move was bringing in Chris Stratton, who was last seen pitching in Game 4 of last season’s World Series. Before that, he was collecting a 3.41 ERA for the Rangers across his final 29 innings pitched. His career 3.98 ERA is better than any Royal reliever had in 2023, outside of Aroldis Chapman and Amir Garrett.

The third major bullpen acquisition this offseason is Will Smith. Smith was also last seen pitching in Game 4 of the World Series. Stratton and Smith pitched back-to-back in the penultimate game of the 2023 season. Smith’s career 3.67 ERA is a welcomed addition to the bullpen, as is his dependability and experience. His career 162-game pace is 66 appearances and 70 innings pitched. Those two numbers would have been the most by any Royals pitcher last year except for Carlos Hernandez, who also started four games.

Beyond the additions, key returners from last year’s team are James McArthur and John McMillon. McArthur had a very strong ending to 2023, giving up just five earned runs across 22.1 innings in his last 17 outings. McMillon was called up in mid-August and showed some promise, allowing just a single run across his four appearances. If those two can become reliable options along with Anderson, Stratton, and Smith, the Royals will have a handful of guys they can feel comfortable putting in close games throughout the season.

Well, let’s do a little bit of math using the scenarios laid out above. If the Royals have a top-15 offense, a top-20 starting rotation, and a top-20 bullpen, that would make their cumulative rank around the 18th-best team in the league. Given how weak the AL Central projects to be, I’ll bump that up to 16 to account for the strength of the schedule.

The 16th-best team in the league won 82 games in 2023, and I think that is probably about close to the ceiling for the 2024 Royals. The Twins won the division in 2023 with 87 wins, with the Tigers finishing second with just 78 wins. If the Royals hit their ceiling, they should be in the AL Central race well into September.