A Royals Prospect Fantasy Draft with Alex Duvall – FARM TO FOUNTAINS

The offseason can be long and at times dull. By the middle of January, we’ve all become more than ready for the return of baseball season. We’ve all read enough prospect updates and updated rankings by now. Lucky for us, spring training kicks off in about a month, and opening day is closer than it feels right now. What better way to prepare for minor league baseball than a fun, “fantasy prospect” draft? I got to sit down with Alex Duvall — the man behind Royals Farm Report — and conduct the exercise. We settled on some very simple parameters. Each of us would draft 15 players in a 30-player snake draft. With those 30 players, we each had to fill a full lineup, a three-man rotation, two relief arms, and one bench bat.

For clarity’s sake, we also agreed that any prospect with MLB service time was ineligible for our draft. This meant that Nick Loftin, John McMillon, and others were unavailable. I was lucky enough to pick first, thanks to a random name generator and the two of us were off.

Preston: The first pick for me is actually an easy decision. With number one I’ll take Tyler Gentry. He’s the best hitter in the entire system [right now] and gives me a well-rounded anchor toward the top of my lineup. In a three-game series against the rest of the farm system, Gentry is probably the favorite to win series MVP.

Alex: That’s a pretty good pick. He’s almost certainly not their best prospect but if we’re thinking three-game series, he’s definitely [the Royals] most advanced hitter. There’s not a guy in the system I’d rather have in the third spot of my lineup with a “title” on the line.

With my first pick, I’ll go with Ben Kudrna. I know it’s not the sexiest pick but he is SO CALM on the mound. Game one of a must-win series, there’s not a better guy to have take the mound for you. He may give up 2-3 runs, but I’m gonna get 6-7 innings and my bullpen should be fresh for the rest of the series. With my second pick, I’m taking another interesting gamble on Javier Vaz. Defensive versatility, a hellacious plate appearance, speed on the bases, and…is he the only Royals prospect with experience playing in Omaha? He might be. There’s my leadoff hitter.

Preston: Kudrna is still insanely underrated so I don’t see it as a sleeper pick, but I’m also not the consensus. Tons of swing and miss and like you mentioned a pretty good bet to give you enough innings to carry a bullpen further along into a three-game series scenario like this one. Vaz reminds me so much of Vinnie in terms of his approach. Obviously insanely different players. Vinnie limited strikeouts, walked, and mashed all at the same time. Vaz isn’t going to mash at that sort of rate, but there are exactly zero players in the system I’d rather have leading off.

With the next pick for me, I’ll take Chandler Champlain. A lot like Kudrna, he’s going to give innings. I can bank on six steady innings. Pretty rare for Channy to lose the game for us and he’s a competitor on the mound. His mindset makes his stuff better than it might actually be if that makes sense. After that, I’m taking Peyton Wilson. Vaz would’ve been my pick at the leadoff spot, but I think Wilson is another good candidate to lead the lineup. Good speed and sound approach most of the time. There were a few guys in consideration here for me but Wilson offers the most upside of the group with a pretty good floor.

Now with five picks down, both of our teams were starting to take shape. With Wilson and Vaz, each team had settled the top of the lineup. With Champlain and Kudrna, each of us had penciled in our “ace.” Picking Gentry first had given me a bit of an edge early on, but it didn’t take long for Alex to close that gap.

Alex: Ben Kudrna vs Chandler Champlain in game one would be an incredible game to actually get to watch. On one side you have the ultimate, “rip your throat out” competitor in Champlain, and on the other side you have a kid who is as cool as the other side of the pillow.

I think Wilson is probably the next best leadoff option in the system but I’m kind of surprised you took him that high. You could probably roll him out into CF if you had to at some point. But… Speaking of CF Preston…I am really surprised that you left me these next two guys…

With my third pick, I’m taking the guy that I’ll put second in my lineup: Carson Roccaforte. I am shocked you let him get here to me. I almost let you have him so you could talk about him for a page and a half, but I’m not so sure he isn’t the best CF prospect in the system at the moment, even if I’ve been all over the board with him. With my fourth pick, I’m taking Spencer Nivens. Easily the most underrated player in the system and I’ll bat him third in my lineup. Depending on my picks later, I could go Vaz-Rocc-Nivens in the outfield, or I could put Vaz at 2B and still slide Nivens over into LF. I’m digging the top third of my lineup so far.

Preston: I’m not sure what the plan is for [Peyton] Wilson anymore. He didn’t play any CF last season and I thought he looked sound there in 2022. I’m banking on him playing 2B in my lineup but there’s some versatility there at least. I was also banking on Roccaforte falling a bit more, and I lost that wager clearly. I’ve said all I can say about Rocc and at this point, I’ve gotta just let his play speak for itself into next year. You definitely snagged my favorite option for CF and now I’ve gotta settle on other options that I don’t like nearly as much.

Nivens is strong but I’ll admit, I’m not so sure I see what everyone else sees. I really like his potential but it’s going to be a long road for him to make it. He needs to develop quite a bit more than some other guys in the system, but his potential is right up there with some of the others if he can put it all together eventually. I think he will stick in Low-A while Roccaforte heads to Quad Cities in 2024, which should let us see what he can do full-time in CF.

Next pick for me, I’m taking Frank Mozzicato. I was too conservative with Roccaforte so I’ll force this one here now. He’s going to walk his share of guys, but another full off-season working a slider into his pitch mix is only going to make Frank better. No arm in the system has a better upside, save for maybe Blake Wolters. Next pick I’ll take Carter Jensen. My lineup is becoming very un-Royal like with so many on-base guys at the top, but I love it. Jensen hit his first pro HR off a lefty last season. It wasn’t a stellar season overall in 2023, but I liked the development we saw from Jensen and I could see him taking another step forward next season.

Alex: I really like the contrast of your lineup so far. You’ve got some power, you’ve got some speed, you’ve got a lot of patience…that’s a really good way to build a well-rounded lineup. I also like taking Frank Mozzicato there. We’re kind of running out of arms and, not that you could have foreseen me taking two arms here, BUT…

I’m going to take David Sandlin and Mason Barnett with my next two picks. I’m getting a little worried about the depth of the arms left and I think there are more bats than arms so I’ll gamble here, even though there are two bats left I REALLY wanted here. Sandlin, if healthy, might be the best pitching prospect in the system. Most guys don’t magically start getting healthier as they age, so there’s some long-term concern there, but I just need him to be good for six innings.

Alex quickly neutralized any early advantage I might have had with Gentry. By now, he’d filled his entire rotation with a trio of good and steady arms from the farm system. Offensively, it’s fallen pretty even.

Preston: Haha. I REALLY wanted Sandlin to round out my rotation. If he was healthy all last season, we might all be talking about Sandlin as the Pitcher of the Year (not to speak poorly about your next pick at all). I think both of those guys give a nice baseline and the overall rotation you’ve got has a pretty safe floor. There’s a good mix of strikeout ability in there too but I’m hoping my patience in the lineup can cancel some of that out.

I can wait on a starter now since you’re all full there. So I’ll continue chugging along with the lineup. I’ll take Gavin Cross to lock down CF. I’ve always viewed him as a future corner guy but he actually played really well defensively there last season. If the strikeouts remain a problem, I can survive them with the patience ahead of him in my lineup. His power remains among the best in the farm system so he’s a nice cleanup bat for me.

After that, I’ll target first base. It’s a very thin position in the system and I don’t want my guy to slip by. I’m not even very certain he’s a first baseman long term but he played there last summer in Arizona. I’m taking Derlin Figueroa to play first. He’s been drawing really impressive reviews from folks I hear from in Surprise and I’m starting to drink the Kool-Aid.

Alex: That’s actually really interesting. When I was thinking about the system lately I didn’t even realize, after Pratto, there are literally zero first-base prospects that I really like, like at all. Figueroa has a chance to be insanely good, but there’s always the Erick Peña risk with these kids too.

I’m glad you left me Cayden Wallace. Best prospect in the system for my money and I needed a little pop in my lineup. Vaz – Rocc – Nivens – Wallace is a dynamic top four, but now things start to get a little bit thinner. I’ll uhh…hmm…I’ll go with Luca Tresh here. I probably didn’t need to force that considering you already took Jensen, but I want the experience behind the plate and he was better offensively than I think most folks realize last year at AA.

Preston: I really like Wallace and he’s a well-rounded prospect. I was hoping he’d still be here but not so lucky. I wanted one of three prospects at third and figured that at least someone would be here so I could wait. But first, I know you and I have talked before about Tresh as an underrated prospect. He was rising up the list before last season then quietly has fallen off the radar for a lot of folks. I still think he’s a sound all-around catching prospect and might be back on the radar in mid-2024.

I’ll take Trevor Werner next. He could play 3B because he has a strong arm. I don’t believe in the power from last season because he was 23 with tons of college experience playing in Low-A. The swing needs work, but I think that his loud contact is still mostly real and I’ll probably end up slotting him more at DH. He’ll be more at DH because I’m taking Austin Charles to play 3B. It gives me some versatility since I also don’t have a SS yet but I really don’t think Charles sticks at SS long-term. He was a nice story last season but started to taper off big time later into the year. He’s a raw talent, but gives me some flexibility and with my lineup, he’s going to be in that bottom half anyway.

Alex: Those are two really good picks. I was gonna go to Austin Charles next. He’s such a high-ceiling player, man. Love love love the projection on him. And somehow Trevor Werner is like the same player but four years older. Two good peas in a pod there.

With my next pick, I’m gonna take Diego Hernandez and slide Javier Vaz to 2B. I don’t love the bat but he’s gonna bat 9th, play some hellacious defense in CF, and provide more speed on the bases than anyone else in the org not named Tyler Tolbert. He’s not on the 40 anymore but I still consider him to be very much a part of the Royals plans. Next, I’m gonna take Will Klein. I want the best closer in the org on my team closing out games and nobody else has been on a bigger stage like Klein was in the Future’s Game last year.

Preston: Although there are plenty of relief options to be found in the organization, I’ve got to get one of the better options remaining. If you look at the landscape of relievers for Kansas City, Klein and McMillon seem like the clear top two prospects out of the bullpen. McMillon, of course, pitched in Kansas City last year and I can’t be drafted in our exercise. Not far behind them is Eric Cerantola for me. His pure stuff is elite and if he can find command — not too different from what McMillon did last season — then we’re talking about a late-inning monster.

Then I’ll grab Tyler Tolbert. He will start at SS for me but there’s versatility there. He played a good CF last year. I can pencil him in as the nine-hitter and it makes a really strong turnaround to Wilson at the top.

Alex: I really like Cerantola. I think he’s got a sneaky James McArthur upside. Those two pitchers really remind me a lot of each other and I think there’s a formula there for a really successful big league reliever. I am so mad I waited this long to take Tyler Tolbert. I’m really upset about that.

I’ll take Daniel Vazquez to start this round because I have to have a shortstop and I can still afford to handle his bat, I think. The unfortunate part of my lineup is I’m really missing some big-time power, so I’m gonna reach for CJ Alexander. I’m gonna be exposed with all these lefties when Mozzicato takes the mound, but I do like the lineup and CJ Alexander carries a TON of juice with him, along with a really nice glove at 1B.

Preston: I still have some faith in Vazquez, but he definitely fell off some last year. He reminds me a lot of Maikel Garcia when he was younger, but much worse with the bat. Garcia never really struggled the way Vazquez did last year. I guess that’s just a long way to say Vazquez is good defensively but can’t figure out the bat quite yet. Anyway, I digress.

I’ve got four more picks and I need a starter, a reliever, and a RF with those four. I’ll take River Town to play RF. I’m basically choosing between Town and Tucker Bradley, but I think Town’s approach is a tad better and he certainly offers more speed. Finally, to round out my hitters, I’ll add some depth on the bench. I like what Kale Emshoff has done lately and he can give me both 1B and C depth. He gives some solid power and as a RHH compliments the lefty Carter Jensen nicely.

Alex: That’s a really really good bench bat in Emshoff. I considered him for my 1B spot as well but opted for the more advanced bat in CJ. I’ve still got three picks left and need a bench bat, reliever, and two bats. I think I’m gonna take Tucker Bradley and Brett Squires here. Probably just the best two “hitters” left, right? Bradley can DH and Squires is a phenomenal RHH off the bench. Given the lack of productive bats left, I think these are the best remaining. I thought a lot about Erick Torres and Angelo Castellano here, but I’m set enough on my defenders and I’ll lean offense here, leaving me just the reliever left.

Preston: Alright. Two spots left for me. I’ve got a righty reliever already in Cerantola so I’ll add a lefty in Cooper McKeehan. He’s not a hard tosser but he was dominant last season in the low minors. I gave Beck Way some consideration here but wanted a lefty pen option. Then finally to round out my rotation and the whole roster I’ll go with Noah Cameron. Really tough to decide between Cameron and a few other guys. I like [Andrew] Hoffmann and Luinder Avila here but Cameron has the best command of the three and the most swing-and-miss potential.

Alex: Cooper McKeehan was going to be my last pick. I really like him as a lefty reliever. Unfortunately for him in real life, that type of profile has been severely devalued by the “three batter” rule, but he’s got good stuff and I think in this format, he’s a great addition to the bullpen. Noah Cameron is someone I thought long and hard about when I took Sandlin and Barnett. I obviously opted for more power stuff than plus command, but he’s a perfect piece for this.

I’ll round out my pitching staff with Blake Wolters. I am fired up for his 2024 campaign and he has the type of electricity in his arm that could be a lockdown set-up man in the future. Obviously, he’ll start for several years and I’m not implying he’s a reliever in real life, just for the sake of what we’re doing here, there are very few guys I’d rather have than Wolters for one inning at a time.

With that, our fantasy draft came to a close. Which team would win out in a three-game series? I had put together some serious patience at the plate, especially from the top of my lineup. On the flip side, Alex had put together a dominant force of a rotation, featuring three power arms with serious strikeout ability.

Above are our final rosters and a look at how our lineups were put together. Were there any prospects you think were missed? Which team do you see winning a potential three-game “playoff” series against the other?