A survey of the Royals Rule 5 landscape: National League – Farm to Fountains

The Rule 5 draft is approaching faster than you might expect, and for the Royals it offers another chance to improve their 40-man roster. The deadline to protect prospects from the draft, which takes place at this year’s Winter Meetings in Nashville, is Tuesday, November 14. Many teams will be making roster moves over the coming days in order to protect those prospects in their system that they otherwise could lose.

MLB.com has a great list of Rule 5 eligible prospects for each organization, including a few top-100 prospects (that almost certainly won’t be left unprotected). After surveying the list of minor leaguers for each organization, I’ve compiled my list of favorites that the Royals could consider this December. A list of American League minor leaguers dropped yesterday, and here’s today’s list of National League minor leaguers.

As of writing, these minor leaguers are not added to their respective clubs 40-man rosters. That could easily change for many over the coming days. Until the deadline passes, they are not truly at risk of being taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Age: 26 Why: .220 ISO

The Diamondbacks selected English in the third round of the 2019 MLB Draft. He’s an older prospect, but also a perfect example of the type of prospect this year’s Rule 5 draft will be full of: good, not great prospects who lost a key year of development in 2020. He made his way to AAA Reno this season as a 26-year-old and slashed .293/.380/.514 with a .221 ISO. He played 24 games in the outfield and 49 at first base. There’s ample amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but he walks enough and has good power.

Age: 25 Why: .390 AVG

Jacob Hurtubise was drafted all the way down in the 39th round of the 2019 MLB Draft, out of West Point. He didn’t sign, and instead signed with the Reds as an undrafted free agent after the COVID-shortened 2020 MLB Draft. After starting 2023 at AA, Hurtubise made his way to AAA Lousiville. Over 36 games there, he slashed .390/.537/.460 with 29 walks and 14 strikeouts. Even though that’s a bit of a small sample, the results are off the charts. On the full season, he played in 119 games between AA and AAA, slashing .330/.479/.483. The Royals could use outfield help, and Hurtubise is an unproven option with upside if he isn’t protected.

Age: 24 Why: 28.6% K%

Roa was a second-rounder in 2020 and the Reds have brought him along fairly slow for a college prospect. He made his way to High-A by the end of 2021, then spent the beginning of the 2022 season there as well. In 2023, he made his way from Double-A to Triple-A, where he made 12 starts. Over those 61.1 innings he owned a 5.43 ERA. Walks are a serious concern for Roa (he walked 6.90 per nine at AAA Louisville) but his strikeout ability is unquestionable. Over 270.0 career minor league innings he has struck out 339 hitters.

Age: 25 Why: 22.2% K-BB%

If Dodgers pitchers are available in the Rule 5 draft, they’re certainly worth a look. Frasso was a fourth-round pick by the Blue Jays, acquired by the Dodgers via trade in 2022. Since joining the Dodgers, he’s blossomed as a pitcher. He features three above average pitches — fastball, slider, and changeup — with solid command. He spent most of 2023 in Double-A, where he made 21 starts with a 3.91 ERA. His K-BB% for Tulsa was an outstanding 22.2%. By the end of the year, he made the trip to Triple-A with still resectable results. The Royals need starting pitching and could do much worse than Frasso should he be available in December.

Age: 26 Why: 2.93 ERA

The second Dodger arm on the list, Landon Knack, was taken by Los Angeles in the second round of the 2020 MLB Draft. He didn’t debut until 2021 (due to the cancelled 2020 minor league season) but once he did, he looked pretty good. Knack started 2023 in Double-A and split the season pretty evenly between Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City. In ten Triple-A starts, he lasted 43.0 innings with a 2.93 ERA. His FIP was much worse (5.32) but somewhere in there is the pitcher that posted a 22.0 K-BB% at Double-A.

Age: 23 Why: .285 AVG

The Padres may end up protecting Ornelas — who is still pretty young — as they look to reshape their major league roster. Juan Soto is likely traded in the coming weeks, opening space. Signed as a 17-year-old out of Mexico, Ornelas has been in the Padres’ system since 2017. In 2023, he appeared in 117 games between AA and AAA, slashing .285/.371/.452. He hit 15 home runs and walked 67 times (12.1%). Ornelas is a promising young outfielder that the Royals could use in right field.

Age: 24 Why: 10.94 SO/9

Teng signed as a 19-year-old international prospect with the Twins back in 2017. The Giants acquired him in 2019 for Sam Dyson and he’s been in their system ever since. In 2023, he made his way to Triple-A for the first time, making 16 starts. Over those 79.0 innings he struck out 96 batters but walked 48. His command was much better at Double-A (with a 23.8% K-BB%) but wasn’t quite there after reaching the minors’ highest level. If he can’t find command as a starter, the strikeout ability could carry him as a reliever.

Age: 24 Why: .232 BAA

Mitchell Parker was drafted in three consecutive seasons: once by the Cubs (28th round, 2018), once by the Rays (27th round, 2019), and finally by the Nationals in the fifth round of 2020. He was a young JUCO product from the same College that brought the Nationals Jackson Rutledge. Parker spent most of 2023 at Double-A, before a very late end-of-year promotion. For AA Harrisburg he made 23 starts with a 3.52 FIP. Over 113.2 IP, he struck out 132 batters and walked 54. The walks are rather high, but the strikeout ability is very real and Parker (6-4, 224) has an excellent makeup on the mound. He’s a big, strong lefty with the potential for three above-average offerings. The Royals would just need to improve his command.