Blake Mitchell or Carter Jensen? The long-term dilemma for the Royals’ two top catcher prospects – Farm to Fountains

There is a strong argument to be made that the Royals’ deepest and strongest position throughout the system is catcher. Not only do they have elite talent at the major league level in Salvador Pérez and Freddy Fermín, but they also had strong performances in 2024 from Brian O’Keefe and Rodolfo Durán in Omaha, Luca Tresh and Carter Jensen in Northwest Arkansas, Blake Mitchell in Columbia, and Ramon Ramirez in the Arizona Complex League. I want to highlight Mitchell and Jensen, who rank as the #2 and #5 prospects in the Royals’ farm system. The two are on a collision course to be in the bigs by 2027, forcing the Royals to decide which is the long-term catcher of the future.

The two are only one year apart in age, despite being drafted two years apart. Those two extra years of development have Jensen projected to make his major league debut in 2026, with Mitchell trailing behind by a year. Things can change depending on how they perform in 2025, but it gives us an idea of when the Royals will have some significant roster decisions to make regarding the two. Which one will be the team’s primary catcher? Will one transition to another position like DH or corner outfield (à la MJ Melendez)? It is more likely than not that Salvy will no longer be a Royal or no longer catching by 2027, especially with his current contract ending after the 2026 season. This leaves the door open for one of these two to fill a large void created by Pérez’s potential departure.

Mitchell was drafted 8^th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft out of Sinton High School in Texas. He came into the organization as the back-to-back Gatorade Player of the Year in the state of Texas and has worked himself up to the #51 prospect in all of baseball. This past season, he was named a Carolina League Post-Season All-Star, Baseball America Low Class A All-Star, and the Royals’ George Brett Hitter of the Year. It was a very impressive first full season of professional baseball. Being the 8^th overall pick comes with high expectations, and Mitchell has lived up to them thus far.

Jensen was drafted in the 3^rd round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Park Hill High School in the Kansas City area. He was committed to play at Louisiana State, but the Royals paid him over-slot value to ensure he stuck with them. He came out of high school with known power potential and a patient approach at the plate. His defense has improved steadily over the past three seasons of professional baseball. He has been on fire in the Arizona Fall League this year, slashing .400/.523/.829, with a 1.351 OPS, 3 doubles, 4 home runs, 10 RBI, and 8 walks to 9 strikeouts. I’ve argued that he’s done enough to be a top 100 prospect in all of baseball, and although he hasn’t made that list yet, he still has plenty of time given his age.

MLB Pipeline’s Scouting Grades

Farm to Fountains/Preston Farr’s Scouting Grades

There are some small discrepancies between the two tables, but they are mostly similar in their evaluation. Mitchell seems to hold the edge in overall power and perhaps a slight edge in field/glove and arm value. Jensen has an edge in overall hit tool and speed. They tend to share many of the same tools and abilities, scoring similar marks in many categories. These tables, however, are not raw data. So, what do Mitchell and Jensen’s 2024 numbers show us?

Blake Mitchell also had 20 plate appearances in High-A that are not included.

Mitchell and Jensen have very similar profiles at the plate. Both walk at a high rate, although Mitchell gets the edge at the moment. It is important to note that Jensen’s walk rate dropped to 8.8% during his time in Double-A, most likely due to the quality of pitching he faced. I would argue that Jensen’s overall plate approach is stronger, he has much less swing-and-miss to his game and is obviously still a very patient hitter. Mitchell’s strikeout rate in Low-A is mildly concerning, but we’ll give it a pass for now as he has much less professional experience than Jensen and still put up great offensive numbers.

Both showed very similar power output, although Jensen showed more gap-to-gap power with 46 total extra-base hits compared to Mitchell’s 37. Jensen also has the edge in overall average, which correlates with his more mature plate approach, including less swing-and-miss to his game. Mitchell’s average slowly decreased as the season wore on, which is not overly surprising for his first full professional season where he compiled 486 plate appearances over 111 games. I expect that trend to improve as his body gets more used to the toll that a long season can have. Lastly, it was surprising that Mitchell stole eight more bases than Jensen, showing that he has plenty of speed (or incredible timing) in his own right. Maybe the gap in speed between the two is even narrower than originally thought.

All data is for their time at catcher.

This isn’t an exhaustive list of defensive statistics, but it does give us some insight into each player’s ability behind the plate. Jensen, the more experienced catcher, has better statistics in every category shown above. His caught-stealing percentage of 26.4% is a very respectable number, given the MLB average is typically around 30%. I have generally heard Mitchell discussed as the more polished prospect defensively between the two, but these numbers say otherwise. There is obviously a huge elephant in the room when it comes to these stats: there is no data related to working with pitchers. There is significant emphasis placed on a catcher’s ability to call a good game for each pitcher they work with (knowing when to ask for certain pitches, where to locate these pitches, etc.), and their framing and blocking ability. I am just scratching the surface with the above stats when it comes to the catching position.

I think the answer is Mitchell and let me explain. Although the above numbers don’t necessarily reflect this, I have heard Mitchell regarded as the more natural catching prospect between the two, with a cannon of an arm to show. I have heard good things about his ability to call games and work well with pitchers. That isn’t to say that Jensen cannot do those things well, but I believe Mitchell is solid in those areas already. Now, I am not out on Jensen in the least. He will also be a starter for the Royals in 2027, but just not behind the plate. With Vinnie Pasquantino managing first base for the foreseeable future, I think a transition to part-time DH and right field is a great move for Jensen to make as he works his way up the minors. He is scouted as the more athletic of the two, which makes me think the transition to the outfield may be a smoother one for him than for Mitchell. There is also the potential for them to split catching duties and DH duties, not unlike Salvy and Freddy did at times in 2024. Whatever the Royals decide to do, one thing I do know: both of their bats deserve to be a part of a big-league lineup.

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