Last season, Javier Vaz burst onto the scene as a surprising prospect for many. Vaz has gone from playing college ball at a small school — LSU Eunice — to eventually transferring to Vanderbilt for his final NCAA season. He landed with the Royals as a 15th-round pick back in 2022 and has worked his way into the Kansas City top prospects lists. He’s one of the best prospects in the entire system but has somehow gone under the radar once again this season. There hasn’t been much hype for him this season, and talk has centered around other notable prospects such as Blake Mitchell or Gavin Cross.
Those big names deserve the attention, but Vaz does in his own right as well. Perhaps the lack of home runs has to do with it. Even without 25-30 home run potential, Vaz offers an extremely high floor and could be seen as the safest bet to eventually play in the big leagues in the entire farm system. With all of that in mind, I chose to highlight Vaz in my Monday Minutes for this week. Over the last seven days, he’s led all Northwest Arkansas hitters with eight hits, slashing .333/.385/.792 in that span. Among his eight hits, two have been doubles, and three have been home runs. That’s a serious power surge that deserves some attention.
The Naturals were in Springfield last week for a six-game set against the Cardinals. In game one, Vaz went 1-4 with two RBI and a walk. His first AB of the day was a quick one. Vaz saw four fastballs in the at-bat. He took the first three pitches, working to a 2-1 count before bouncing out to first for an easy ground out. Vaz came to the plate again in the top of the second inning, this time with a man on first and third and two out. Vaz swung at the first pitch of the at-bat, fouling it off his foot. In the third pitch of the appearance, he got out ahead of an off-speed pitch and barreled it to the right-field wall for a double.
The double came off of former big leaguer and top prospect, Steven Matz. In his third plate appearance of the day, Vaz came up in the top of the fourth and quickly worked a 3-0 count against the Cardinals reliever. He took a pitch just outside the plate, followed by one just above the zone, and another just below the zone. Gallegos got a “get-me-over” pitch across before tossing ball four on the fifth pitch of the appearance. Vaz earned a walk without ever taking the bat off his shoulder. The final two at-bats of the day for Vaz ended as strikeouts in what was a rare multi-K performance for him (just the fourth time this season).
Vaz got game two started quickly with a high-arching double to left-center. It was a catchable ball that the left fielder simply didn’t pull in. Despite the expected results, Vaz put a strong swing on the baseball and barreled it to the opposite field wall. Vaz was up again in the second inning thanks to more strong offense from the Naturals lineup. He worked a single into center field in what was an excellent example of how good Vaz can be at finding contact. The pitch was fading away from the plate (a changeup) and Vaz reached for it, adjusting his hands to find the barrel and push the ball over the second base bag. It’s this sort of ability at the plate that gives Vaz such a safe floor as a prospect. Power goes through slumps, but pure contact ability is far less likely to disappear for days and weeks.
In Vaz’s third at-bat of the day, he took strike one on a pitch that looked off the plate away and should’ve been a ball. The second pitch of the at-bat was in nearly the exact same place and Vaz poked it to left field for a fly-out. To open the sixth inning, Vaz got a first-pitch changeup that hung well up in the zone. Much like his double from game one of the series, Vaz turned on it and lifted this one over the fence in right for a home run.
Game three for Vaz started with a sharp lineout to right field. He worked an advantageous 2-1 count before turning on an off-speed pitch. The process was strong, but just happened to be one of those “right place, right time” situations for the Cardinals right fielder. The second at-bat of the game was similar, resulting in a sharp lineout to center. Vaz again turned on the pitch. Pulling the ball with lift has been the leading factor behind the power surge for the last week or so.
Vaz was playing in left field for this one. Most of the week was spent at second base, and in general, there isn’t much to say about Vaz’s defense. That’s a good thing. He plays very good fundamental baseball, especially in the field. He’s made just one error all season — in the third game of the season playing shortstop. In the outfield, he takes good routes to the baseball with a solid jump. His above-average speed helps him cover good ground as well. He made a solid play here to end the fourth inning.
Now into the eighth, Tyler Tolbert was on second base with no outs. Vaz attempted to bunt his way aboard but ended up in a two-strike count. That didn’t matter for manager Tommy Shields. The Naturals kept the bunt play on and Vaz put down about as perfect a bunt as you could ask for. That earned him an infield single. Once again, just outstanding fundamentals.
Vaz started off game four with (what else?) great contact on a deep fly ball to right. He pulled the ball and just narrowly missed a home run, earning an out on the warning track. In the third inning, Vaz was back at the plate again. It was an excellent appearance. Vaz worked a 3-1 count against a visibly frustrated starter in Ian Bedell. After taking three pitches pretty close to the edge of the zone, Vaz turned on an inside changeup and lifted it for his second home run of the series.
Vaz made a solid defensive play in the bottom of the third to get the first out. He handles tough choppers very well, making up time with a very quick transfer. In this instance, the ball got on him quickly with a difficult hop. Vaz adjusted quickly to get the runner by a step at first base. Vaz reached on an error in the sixth and then flew out in the seventh inning. Popouts to center (in the seventh) and third base (in the ninth) ended the day for Vaz.
In his fifth and final game of the week, Vaz had two hits. The Naturals bludgeoned the Cardinals with a barrage of hits. They finished the day with 14 runs on 20 hits. Vaz started his day as the leadoff man, grounding out weakly to pitcher Steven Matz. He got just above the pitch, chopping it into the ground. Vaz’s good fundamental defense again shined through in the second inning of this one. He snagged a sharp ground ball before spinning and making the throw to first just in time to snag the runner.
Vaz walked on five pitches to open the fourth inning. He only saw three pitches to open the fifth, pouncing on the third pitch for a single the opposite way. It was a bloop single, but Vaz got the bat around strong enough to get the ball into no man’s land. In the sixth, perhaps the most rare event of the series took place. Vaz struck out swinging on three pitches. The second pitch of the at-bat was a foul tip. The third was a pitch outside and away. Vaz checked his swing and didn’t look to go around, but the third base umpire ruled it a swing and Vaz sat down.
In the top of the ninth, Vaz put the exclamation point on what was an outstanding week at the plate. Vaz did (what else?) exactly what he had all series long — pulled the ball with authority over the right-center field wall. This homer was especially impressive. Vaz was able to get around on a ball on the outer half of the plate and still lift it to one of the deepest parts of the park.
Vaz hasn’t been in the spotlight as much as he was to open last season, but he’s been just as good. It’s for that reason that he’s going to land in the top five of my midseason update to the top Royals prospects. He’s barely missed a step at any point since arriving at Double-A. The only real knock to speak of was a power drought to open the 2024 season. That drought has quickly started to dissipate with last week’s strong performance. The foundation is simply too exceptional to ignore and there’s data to back that up.
Courtesy of Thomas Nestico (who I highly recommend on Patreon) here’s a look at the player card for Javier Vaz.
You’re not going to find anything much better than that. Vaz is at or damn near at 100th percentile for zone contact rate, outside-of-the-zone swing rate, and whiff rate. He is a grinder at the plate and a pitcher’s worst nightmare. Vaz rarely swings outside the zone. He sees the ball well and doesn’t allow many freebies to opposing arms. At the same time, he punishes pitchers inside the zone and puts the ball in play at an elite level. That combination is going to carry him a long way and makes him about as safe a bet to be a future big leaguer as anyone else in the system.
The next step for Vaz will be to punish pitchers with extra bases when he makes contact — not just singles. Over the last week or two, he’s done that. But it’s been in the works all season long. Last season with the Naturals, Vaz finished with a 14.0% line drive rate. This season, that number is all the way up to 23.6%. His BABIP is .298, which may leave slight room for positive regression. Since the calendar flipped to June, the line drive rates are paying off at the plate, but the BABIP shows even more room for better luck.
Since June 1st, Vaz is slashing .283/.353/.587 with a .304 ISO (!) and a .278 BABIP. Vaz has a 155 wRC+ in that span with five walks and seven strikeouts. Even back to mid-May (5/15), Vaz owns a .194 ISO and a 131 wRC+. Javier Vaz never went anywhere, and never truly started slumping. He’s only just now starting to find extreme success with his improved line drive rates. Now, as we’ve seen over the last week, he’s starting to pull the ball in addition when he can to really do damage against opposing pitchers.
I think Vaz’s profile at the plate is similar enough to Vinnie Pasquantino’s, if only without as much power potential. Think Pasquatch but with speed as a larger leading tool than power. The approach is very similar, and for that reason, I think Vaz can be a fairly quick mover to the big leagues. His ETA should be seen as the middle of next season. For comparison, here are Vinnie Pasquantino’s first 57 games at AA in 2021 compared to Vaz’s first 57 games in 2024:
Javier Vaz and Vinnie Pasquantino in the same lineup would be awful news for opposing pitchers — and great news for the Kansas City Royals.