NW Arkansas's Hidden Breakout Candidate: Dillan Shrum – Farm to Fountains

Every season, certain players entice hope of a breakout coming soon. Whether they live up to the hype is always to be seen. Here we look to find some insight into who may be on the verge of something bigger. That’s led us to Dillan Shrum. The former Nevada Wolf Pack first baseman signed with the Royals as an undrafted free agent in 2021. Shrum’s final year with the Wolf Pack saw him named the Mountain West Player of the Year. That record-setting season with Nevada saw him slash .468/.527/.968 with 15 home runs in 35 games.

Since entering the farm system, Shrum has been a steady contributor in many ways. He didn’t do anything that jumped off the page in 2023, but one thing stands out above the rest. Shrum managed to get on base around 40 percent of the time (.399 OBP). Despite 115 strikeouts and a .235 batting average, he hit for enough power to push his OPS to .832 in the pillbox down at Arvest Ballpark in Springdale. More importantly, he finished the season with a wRC+ of 127. 

There are a few specifics that point to an ability to produce more than he has shown so far. As previously mentioned, he has a great ability to get on base. Shrum has managed to keep his walk rate above 10% in back-to-back seasons. He topped out at 15.1 percent last year in AA but pairs it with a strikeout rate of 32.1 percent. Shrum slashed .235/.399/.832 with those numbers, but the main concern lies in strikeouts. Shrum needs to cut the K% and turn those at-bats into hits. That’s easier said than done, and probably sound advice for just about every player to ever play the sport. I stand by it though, as it’s the only problem that plagues him. First base is a bat-first position. Hitting the ball in the air enough for the BABIP to play above average means a big season could be brewing.

Although the home run power certainly lacks in bigger ballparks, that should translate to doubles down the stretch. As mentioned before, Shrum put up great slugging numbers at Nevada while also hitting for a career average of .333. His 1.044 OPS over 5 seasons of college ball gives hope that he may just need to continue to adjust. The typically damning fact that he is a college bat and as old as he is isn’t as concerning since he took an extra year of college. He is now entering only his third season of professional ball and seems to improve with promotion. This seems like the year to prove it with a decent build at the end of last season and his age-26 season on the horizon. 

Looking towards his possible output, there may be potential in him that mirrors a post-Cleveland Carlos Santana. He could benefit a major league roster as a spot starter who gets on base for the other hitters. His college numbers show he can certainly make contact and the other intangibles can easily translate to the big leagues if it rears its head again. It is worth noting that Fangraphs projects a large decline in his play coming into this season (.201/.294/.345). Either the projections don’t reward his above-average BABIP or they don’t love that he relies so heavily on the walk to be productive so far. It wouldn’t be too far-fetched to expect him to out-produce those numbers

As mentioned in our State of the Org series, our first base position is fairly shallow beyond the obvious starter in Vinnie Pasquantino and another on-base savant in Nick Pratto. With little competition, a big season out of Shrum could push the org to either deal him or another first baseman and establish a long-term solution to the depth at first. Shrum makes sense to fill the role without the expectation of supplanting “The Pasquatch”, albeit with a few older options at the AAA level. He’ll have to prove it in an upcoming season. He’s Rule 5 eligible after 2024 and a good showing could earn him a look, even if it isn’t with Kansas City.