What does the Royals' bullpen look like for 2025? – Farm to Fountains

The Royals’ bullpen has been a major revolving door over the last year. In the offseason, they dedicated a lot of capital to getting reliable relievers. They added veterans in free agency like Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson, as well as trading for John Schreiber. Despite this, the Royals’ bullpen in 2024 was the most inconsistent part of the team and was their number one priority at the trade deadline. The Royals made moves, adding Sam Long, trading for Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey, and moving Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch to the pen for support as September came around. The Royals seemed to have resolved most of their bullpen issues, so what will the bullpen look like as we head into 2025? Who will be back and who will be added?

Lucas Erceg (Closer)

Likelihood: 99%

Erceg was the biggest addition for the Royals at the 2024 trade deadline. The Royals sent 3 prospects to the Athletics to acquire Erceg and he immediately became their highest leverage reliever the second he landed at KCI. He had great success for the Royals and was especially important late in the season and in the playoffs. Erceg posted an ERA of 2.88, a .84 WHIP as a Royal, including 11 saves. His success plugged him into the closer role to end the year and immediately made him a fan favorite in Kansas City.

Erceg has some of the best stuff in the Royals’ entire organization. He has a good firm four-seamer and sinker that sit at 98.5 MPH and can get into the triple digits fairly often. Erceg mixes in two other pitches to compliment his high-velocity stuff. He has a good slider with a good vertical dip to it and is very effective against righties. He also mixes in a wiffleball-like changeup that throws hitters off his fastball and consistently has 18 inches of lateral movement. Erceg is the best pitcher in the Royals’ bullpen and barring anything crazy, he is all but a lock to be the closer in 2025.

Hunter Harvey (Setup)

Likelihood: 99%

Hunter Harvey was another guy that the Royals made a priority, dealing for him in mid-July, well before the trade deadline. They sent over a top hitting prospect Cayden Wallace as well as the 39th pick in the MLB draft. The goal for him was to be the setup man in the 8th inning, which is a role he had for several years prior with the Nationals. Unfortunately, Harvey did not pitch all that much in a Royals uniform as he struggled with back issues all season and eventually the team elected to shut him down for the year. Harvey’s numbers were down some last year, but I attribute almost all of that to the injury as he had consistent success in the years prior. 

Harvey is another high velocity guy who comes in averaging 98 MPH on his fastball which he throws over 60% of the time. His velocity never really looked right when he was with the Royals, which I think can be attributed to his injury struggles. He pairs his fastball with a good splitter to keep hitters honest as well as a slider and curveball. I have heard good things about Harvey’s recovery and assuming Harvey is healthy next season, he will likely get his role as the setup man back in 2025.

Angel Zerpa (Left-handed leverage)

Likelihood: 99%

Zerpa was a pivotal part of the Royals’ bullpen this year and was one of the most surprising players on the Royals’ pitching staff in 2024. Zerpa got off to a great start to the year having an ERA of just 1.54 at the end of May, showing off exactly what he’s capable of. His ERA spiked after he struggled in June, and he was optioned to AAA. He came back up and struggled some in August as well, but he figured it out in September. Once September started, Zerpa allowed one run the rest of the year in a playoff outing against the Yankees. Zerpa’s bounce back was impressive and was a great sign of his mentality on the mound attacking the zone and never backing down from a hitter. 

His pitches are very similar to Erceg but on the left side of the mound, and Zerpa saw a big velocity boost in 2024 when his sinker and four-seamer ticked up almost 2 MPH. Zerpa throws a hard sinker as his primary pitch at 96.5 MPH with a good sink to it. He has a very effective slider from the left side of the mound with good dip and gets a lot of swing and miss with a WHIFF rate of 21%. He also mixes in a changeup that could be very effective if he gets a better feel for it. Zerpa is one of the best ground ball pitchers the Royals have, and I expect he will keep his leverage role coming in to force double plays, especially against lefties.

John Schreiber (Right-handed leverage)

Likelihood: 99%

Schreiber was a big part of the rebuild for the Royals’ bullpen in 2024 and they traded one of their better pitching prospects to get him. They invested in him to be a guy who can come in for high-leverage spots to force soft contact and get outs. He’s known for his ability to force soft contact and ground balls and was one of the best pitchers for the Royals all year. Schrieber is especially effective against right-handed hitters due to his low 9-degree arm slot making it hard to pick up his pitches. His arm angle and lateral movement of his pitches throw off the hitters’ timing and make him very difficult to hit.

Schreiber has a quality pitch mix, using 5 different pitch types, all of which he can use effectively and often. Schreiber throws a big sweeper that breaks far away from right-handed hitters with 14 inches of break. He pairs it with a sinker, four-seamer, and cutter all sitting around 90 MPH and are tough to square up. He also mixes in a changeup to keep hitters off balance. Soft contact and keeping hitters guessing is the name of the game for Schrieber and he will be a leverage guy against right-handed hitters for the Royals in 2025.

Sam Long (Left-hander)

Likelihood: 95%

Long was a minor league addition for the Royals in the middle of the 2024 season and was one of the biggest additions they had. Long struggled to find a permanent role with an MLB team and bounced around some until the Royals signed him to a minor league deal. Long was invited to spring training and was promoted to the major league roster in May in replacement of Matt Sauer. Long exploded and was very possibly the most consistent reliever for the Royals in 2024, making a major impact in the playoffs after a rough September, showing his resilience and mentality.

Long has a quality pitch mix and a quality fastball with good spin rates and a 94.3 MPH average velocity. The fastball sets up his other pitches and makes him incredibly effective against lefties, which helped solidify his role in the bullpen in 2024. Long pairs his fastball with a slider, splitter, and a wicked 12-6 curveball. The slider doesn’t have great break but is firm at 86 MPH and is effective against lefties. Early in his career, Long threw a changeup but moved more to a splitter this year. The curve is his best pitch at 78 MPH, 18 inches of downward brake, and 2600 RPM, making it his hardest pitch to barrel.

Yimi Garcia (Right-hander strikeouts)

Likelihood: 70% (any free agent)

The Royals need a guy who can come in and get strikeouts for them in leverage spots. Garcia will be that guy. The 34-year-old veteran has a long history of playing in leverage spots with his high velocity and ability to get swing and miss. The Royals need a guy for every scenario, and this is the thing I think they are missing the most. Garcia isn’t a closer, but he is someone who can come in at a high leverage point of the game and sit someone down without allowing contact.

Garcia has the high velocity four-seam fastball that is his primary pitch and sits around 97 MPH with really good spin. He also has a great lateral breaking curveball with a ton of spin as well as several other quality offerings. He mixes in a sinker, sweeper, changeup and a slider that helps keep hitters guessing. I think it is likely the Royals go out and get a bullpen arm late in free agency, and in this scenario, Garcia is their guy.

Other free agent options include Jose LeClerc, Clay Holmes, Ryne Stanek, and many more guys who can come in and get strikeouts as needed. 

Evan Sisk (Left-Hander)

Likelihood: 50%

Sisk was added to the Royals’ 40-man roster early in the offseason and I think that there is a real chance he makes the major league roster in 2025. The Royals say they see Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch as starters in 2025 which means there is an opening for a lefty in the bullpen and I think Sisk wins it. I can’t really determine his role yet and I think that will get figured out in spring training, but he has quality stuff to come in and get outs in the middle of the game. Sisk has a high-quality slider that he pairs with 3 fastballs (sinker, cutter, four-seamer) and gets a good amount of whiff on the slider despite average spin. Sisk will be very effective against lefties and if I had to guess, I think facing lefties will be his specialty to start 2025.

Chris Stratton (Right-hander)

Likelihood: 50%

I think the Royals start the year with Chris Stratton on the major league roster as he is under contract for 2025 and struggled to be healthy in 2024. Stratton was a guy the Royals really prioritized in free agency in 2024 because of his insane curveball and past success. Stratton struggled with a forearm injury in 2024 and had a lot of trouble finding any consistency. But the Royals gave him a two-year contract in 2024, and I think they intend to start the year with him on the roster. We know his skillset and he is more than capable of finding success in 2025 if he’s healthy.

Stratton has a large pitch mix throwing 5-6 different pitches which is fairly unique for a reliever. Stratton is known for his high spin rates on all of his pitches and his ability to make the ball move across the zone and keep hitters guessing. His fastball sits around 92 MPH but has 2400 RPM and really stays up in the zone. The fastball is not anything crazy, but it tunnels well with his other pitches making it harder to pick up. Stratton has a wicked curveball that is one of the best in baseball with 3000 RPM!!! He also throws a good slider and mixes in a few changeups and sinkers as needed. Stratton won’t blow you away with power, but he keeps hitters off balance with his spin and pitch mix and I expect the Royals will give him a chance in the majors in 2025.

James McArthur (Right-hander leverage)

Likelihood: 50%

James McArthur fell out of favor with Royals fans after he really struggled as the closer in 2024. McArthur was DFA’d by the Phillies in 2023 and the Royals went out and got him with confidence they could make him a major leaguer. They did so, and early on in 2024 McArthur looked like the best reliever the Royals had, which led to him taking over the closer role from Will Smith. McArthur started well but really struggled as the season went on, unable to get strikeouts as needed and lost the role later in the year. The closer role is not easy, as the other team has an intense scouting report on you and McArthur really couldn’t adjust. 

McArthur has great stuff which makes him a valuable player and is exactly why the Royals like his skillset. At 6’7″, McArthur has the intangibles that you don’t find often, with good velocity and spin as well as great extension making his pitches even harder to pick up on. His pitch mix includes a hard sinker as his primary pitch that sits around 95 MPH and has good movement. His best pitch is a big curveball with 2800 RPM, which is well above league average, but he struggled some with command and left it up in the zone too often. He mixes in a hard slider that also was very hittable in 2024 but keeps hitters off the sinker, making it hard to barrel him when he’s on.

McArthur is coming off an elbow injury and I am not sure how the recovery is going or how severe it is. There is some question around that, and he has an option left allowing the Royals to put him in AAA to start the year. If healthy, I think it is almost certain that McArthur will be on the major league team at some point during the year. We have seen him force ground balls at a high rate and I think he would be much more successful in a different role than the closer role in 2025, potentially earning himself a permanent spot in the bullpen. 

Carlos Hernandez (Right-hander leverage)

Likelihood: 30%

It was hard for me to leave Carlos off the major league roster but unfortunately I think his luck may have run out in Kansas City. Hernandez is well known for his stuff and has been an exciting project for the Royals over the past few years. Hernandez is known for his big fastball with a lot of spin and sat around 99 MPH in 2023. He is a true power pitcher and the organization has been all about his upside for a few years now. At one point in 2023 it was rumored the Royals were offered a top 100 prospect for him but they stuck with him in hopes he would develop well.

Unfortunately, the breakout everyone has hoped for hasn’t happened yet, as Carlos has struggled with command a lot. Hernandez leans on the fastball immensely, throwing it more than 50% of the time, and has struggled to find success and consistency with the other pitches in his repertoire. Ideally, Carlos looks good in spring training, earns a roster spot, and can be that leverage strikeout pitcher we all hoped he could be. I think it is possible we see Hernandez traded this offseason if there is a team that thinks they can work with him, and if Kansas City doesn’t believe he will make the team.

Daniel Lynch (Left-hander, long relief)

Likelihood: 25%

Lynch was once the 34th overall pick in the 2018 draft and was one of the Royals’ top prospects for many years. Unfortunately, Lynch hasn’t had the development the Royals had hoped, and he hasn’t really been able to add velocity to his pitches over time. Lynch has good command and a good pitch mix, but his stuff is not anything that jumps off the screen. Lynch was called up as a reliever in 2024 and pitched well in a long relief role. It’s possible he will have the same role in 2025, but JJ Picollo says he views Lynch as more of a starter, so I suspect they will keep him as starter depth as he has another year of options left.

Kyle Wright (Right-hander)

Likelihood: 15%

Last offseason the Royals moved on from Jackson Kowar, trading him to the Braves for Kyle Wright. Wright missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery and is a big-time wild card for the Royals going into 2025. I am not quite ready to put much stock into Wright being a major contributor, but he certainly has the potential to do so. Some even view him as a starter after his incredible 2022 season where he pitched over 180 innings. Unfortunately, that season is the only time Wright surpassed 40 IP in a season.

As much as I like what Kyle Wright has to offer, he has to get healthy first so the Royals can figure out what he can offer. Wright has a great curveball with 2700+ RPM on it as his primary pitch and is very effective with it. He has two fastballs, a four-seamer and sinker, that sit in the mid-90s and are quality pitches for him. He also throws a changeup and a slider to avoid barrels and throw off timing. If he moves to the pen, he may eliminate one or two of those pitches to be more effective. I think Wright will start in Omaha to get a feel for where he is at in recovery and to figure out his role, and with some success, he could find a major league spot.

Steven Cruz (Right-hander leverage)

Likelihood: 10%

In all likelihood, Cruz won’t make the major league roster to start the year as he has 2 minor league options remaining. Cruz is a similar story to Carlos Hernandez: a guy with a big fastball, who has struggled with command and using his off-speed stuff effectively. Cruz is 6’7″ and his size gives him good velocity and extension, making it very hard to catch up to his pitches. Cruz has a fastball that sits around 98 MPH and pairs it with a cutter and slider. He also occasionally mixes in a sinker, but it is not a common pitch for him. Cruz still has time to develop but provides good depth for the bullpen and could find a role with the team if he has success in AAA or if there are injuries to the other members of the bullpen.

Luinder Avila (Right-hander leverage)

Likelihood: 5%

Avila is similar to Angel Zerpa as a prospect and has been a quality prospect for the Royals for some time now. Avila’s calling card is his hard cutter that sits around 97 MPH as well as his big curveball that can be 2800+ RPM. He also has a quality slider that he has developed and also mixes in a changeup and a sinker as needed. Avila has been a starter his whole minor league career, but I think is a better fit in the bullpen down the line because of his high velocity and spin. 

He has only pitched significant innings as high as AA so far and struggles with his command. But if he can get better control of his pitches, he could be on the major league roster at some point in 2025. Avila has a ways to go, but he was selected to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft next month. If he moves to the bullpen, I think he can ditch the changeup and sinker and stick with his cutter, slider, and curve mix, and could be very effective if he develops better control.

Eric Cerantola (Right-hander leverage)

Likelihood: 5%

Cerantola is my guy, and I am a big fan of what he has to offer as a player. He has a big fastball that can touch triple digits as well as a wicked curveball with a ton of spin that he mixes in and can be a real swing-and-miss pitch. Cerantola was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft and finished last year in Omaha. There is no question he has strikeout stuff and could be an elite reliever down the line. However, the command has been the main concern as his walk rate is quite high and he can have trouble finding the zone. But with some small improvements, Cerantola could be an incredibly good major-league reliever.

Alec Marsh/Kris Bubic (Long relief)

Likelihood: ~1%

Picollo labeled both of these guys as starters and said he was confident in their ability as starters. Bubic and Marsh have both seen time in the bullpen in the past, but I think it is unlikely we see them there in 2025. Both have minor league options left and will be used as depth pitching if they don’t crack the rotation to start 2025.

Noah Cameron

Likelihood: ~1%

Cameron was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft and should be viewed as a starter. 

Image credit: Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports

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