Off the deep end: Jac Caglianone overreactions – Farm to Fountains

If I title this post “Off the Deep End,” will it make me seem less like a lunatic? You’ll have to be the judge, but the fact that Jac Caglianone has garnered this sort of exercise speaks volumes to what he’s been able to accomplish in his first ever Spring Training. The Kansas City Royals’ top prospect has gone 6-for-12 with three home runs and just one strikeout thus far. By comparison, Bobby Witt Jr. slashed .250/.308/.250 over his first 12 spring at-bats. That was in 2021, but even in 2022, he slashed .462/.462/1.000 with two home runs and one strikeout across his first 13 at-bats. That spring, of course, Witt made his mark and earned his way onto the team’s Opening Day roster.

Admitedly, comparing the two situations is extremely apples and oranges. 2022 was Witt’s second spring training and he was three years removed from being drafted. That spring, Dayton Moore stated early that Witt would have a chance to make the team’s roster. We’ve yet to see any such indication or statement from J.J. Picollo. It seems more far-fetched that Caglianone could make the Kansas City opening day roster, but might it be a bit more possible than it seems on the surface? Afterall, the conversations around the Royals-sphere about the team’s current top prospect have become somewhat similar to what we saw back in 2022.

Contextualizing Jac Caglianone’s resume for a potential opening day call-up

The chances of such an early call-up for Jac Caglianone seems minuscule, but the idea may not be as far-fetched as it appears. After all, Caglianone wouldn’t even be the only 2024 draftee competing for an Opening Day roster spot already (and no, the other doesn’t play for the Angels). The Astros have begun to work out prospect Cam Smith in right field to let him earn an Opening Day roster spot.

Smith, a third baseman, is 9-for-17 with two homers and five walks this spring and has made such a strong impression that the Astros are trying to find ways to carry him on the Opening Day roster if he keeps producing. With Isaac Paredes as the starter at third base, Smith’s avenue to the roster could be in right field.

No two players share the same developmental timeline, but Smith appeared in just 32 minor league games last season. Granted, he fared much better in 12 games at High-A (.921 OPS), but five games at Double-A saw that mark drop to .774. Smith didn’t play in the Fall League, where Caglianone slugged .449 with five home runs. Then, there’s the comparison to how the Royals handled Bobby Witt Jr. Witt compiled 161 minor league games. That worked out to 744 plate appearances and a full season between Double-A and Triple-A. That sample doesn’t even include the 2020 Alternate Site time when Witt played alongside many upper-level prospects during the canceled minor league season.

By that evaluation, it would seem that Caglianone likely heads to the minor leagues and gets at least a full season in there like the Royals did with Bobby Witt Jr. But what about time in the SEC? Witt was a prep prospect, signed out of high school. Caglianone played three full seasons in the SEC. Although it’s not nearly the same level of talent as Double-A and above, it can roughly be compared to something near A-Ball.

That adds 165 games and 750 plate appearances to the resume for Caglianone on top of his 226 minor league plate appearances between High-A and the Arizona Fall League. Suddenly, we’re looking a bit closer to Witt’s sample size in the system before his call-up. Of course, it’s not black and white. Caglianone isn’t the same type of prospect that Witt was. He does offer MVP-level potential, however.

Caglianone would have an uphill climb, needing to learn a new position while adjusting to Major League pitchers. Would that need to potentially learn right field be enough to keep him in the minors for 2025? It’s worth remembering that Witt Jr. had all of 18 games played at third base before he was called up and named the team’s starting third baseman for 2022. Regardless of how Witt graded defensively at third base, Caglianone could hardly be a less valuable defender than, say, Nelson Velázquez was a year ago.

In all, as things stand now, it remains unlikely that Caglianone will force his way onto the Kansas City Opening Day roster. Yet, a chance still exists. The 2022 Royals played Witt more sparingly early on before giving him near-everyday opportunities as Spring Training went on. That should be the blueprint for Caglianone for the remainder of March. Play him in right field now, rather than wait for a minor league season. If Caglianone proves even just serviceable in right field, his raw power and ability with the bat could very well be good enough right now to make him worthy of an Opening Day roster spot. This isn’t a call to put Jac Caglianone on the Royals’ Opening Day roster. It’s simply to say that the Royals should give him every chance to prove he deserves it between now and March 27.

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.